Ella Langley, Ken Carson and Geese really ought to thank the Recording Academy for making an unexpected rule change this year. The academy had long had a rule that an artist could be entered no more than three times in the best new artist category, which would have knocked out all three of these acts, among others. But in June, the academy announced that it is upping the cap to four.
We first previewed the Grammy nominations in the marquee categories back in July. This week, we’ve been updating those predictions, as needed. On Monday, we looked at album of the year, probably the most prestigious and coveted of the 100 Grammy categories. On Tuesday, we took on record and song of the year. Today, we’re looking at best new artist.
The field of likely best new artist contenders has changed considerably since July. Dominic Fike and Megan Moroney, who I had pegged as likely nominees, are not on the list of eligible contenders. Fike had been nominated for album of the year in 2022 as a featured artist on the deluxe edition of Justin Bieber’s Justice. Moroney won new female artist of the year at the Academy of Country Music Awards in May 2024 and new artist of the year at the Country Music Association Awards that November.
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Yet the Grammys’ screening committee voted to allow Rod Wave, who has had eight consecutive top 10 albums on the Billboard 200, dating back to November 2019, and Don Toliver, who has had five consecutive top 10 albums, dating back to March 2020.
The key issue, according to the academy, is determining what year the artist first had a “significant cultural and community impact.”
Here’s the relevant rule, taken from the Rules & Guidelines handbook for the 69th Grammy Awards: “This category recognizes the excellence of an artist whose eligibility-period release(s) have had significant cultural and community impact upon the industry and the musical landscape. While there will be no specified maximum number of previous releases, the Screening Committees will be charged with determining whether the artist had attained this high degree of impact in the music industry prior to the eligibility year. Such a determination would result in disqualification.”
A total of 331 artists are competing for eight slots in the best new artist category on the final ballot. Here are our best guesses for who will be nominated — listed in alphabetical order, followed by a shortlist of other possibilities, also listed in alphabetical order.
The eligibility period for the 69th annual Grammy Awards ran from Aug. 31, 2025, through Aug. 28, 2026.
