GKIDs’ release of Toho’s Godzilla Minus Zero — now who the heck saw this coming?
In what’s expected to be a slower November, at least stateside, sans a Wicked, a Moana or a Zootopia movie in the marketplace, along comes the Takashi Yamazaki written and directed sequel to Oscar winning 2023 Japanese language, English subtitled movie with a $25M-$30M domestic forecast and another $30M+ abroad from 23 territories per industry forecasts. All in a global start around $60M.
But the lizard could get tripped up by the worldwide start of Indian epic Ramayana: Rise of a Legend, and projects are running wild with anywhere from $30M-$60M+ for the country’s most expensive movie ever (the two-part epic cost a reported $420M-$500M). Note, we’re being conservative. Sony only has select territories abroad including North America; scroll down.
Even if Godzilla Minus Zero has smaller fire than expected, and files in the mid $20M range in North America, that’s the still the biggest opening ever for frosh distributor GKIDs beating their previous high opening of Hayao Miyazaki’s The Boy and the Heron ($13M).
In this follow-up, winged three headed beast King Ghidorah wrecks havoc on post WWII Japan, as the humans look to find an ally in Godzilla.
Yesterday, Tuesday, Nov. 3, was Godzilla day which was when Toho bowed the first movie in theaters in 1954. This year marked the 72nd anniversary. Already, Godzilla Minus Zero has posted a massive $5.7M first day in Japan (910M Yen), exceeding 590,000 attendees. Toho is calling it an opening day record for a live-action title in Japan (on both a local and foreign basis). We can’t verify that stat exactly, but what we can tell you is that the number is under the first day opening of July 2025’s Demon Slayer..Infinity Castle (1.64B yen, $11.1M), which was a record opening day in Japan. We’re hearing the Imax opening day B.O. for Godzilla Minus Zero also bested that of Infinity Castle. Godzilla Minus Zero‘s first day take in Japan exceeds the first day of Godzilla Minus One by +201%. The expectation is that Godzilla Minus Zero will open to north of $11M, which would be higher than local Japanese hit from earlier this year, Kingdom 5 ($9.75M opening weekend, final $42M cume) and Spider-Man: Brand New Day ($9.9M opening weekend, $36.6M final cume). Japanese forecasts have Godzilla Minus Zero projected to final there at north of 10B Yen or $63.2M.
The pic raids Australia, Brazil, Mexico, France, Germany, UK, Spain and Japan this weekend. Italy and South Korea won’t be going in this opening suite. Japanese movies aren’t given theatrical releases in China.
In U.S./Canada there were Imax fans shows yesterday, as well as today which will be rolled into Thursday previews which begin after 10AM. The R-rated movie was made for Imax and GKIDs has booked the title at 3,250 theaters including all, yes, Imax auditoriums and PLFs. We understand that the marketing budget for the domestic release, which was largely social, was under $10M. The movie is 89% certified fresh with critics.
By comparison, Godzilla Minus One opened to $11.4M in the No. 2 spot during the first weekend of December 2023 and finaled at a great 5x multiple of $57.1M (there was also a black and white print), and $113.9M global ($48.2M of that came from Japan). The pic, made for $10M, won Best VFX at the Oscars in 2024 and received a solid A CinemaScore.
Warner Bros Pictures Animation has its first theatrical release under division boss Bill Damaschke, the feature animated take of Dr. Seuss’ all-time classic, The Cat in the Hat, which is looking at around $20M give or take at the domestic box office at 4,000 theaters including 3D, PLFs, motion seats and Dolby Cinema. The last time we saw the Cat in the Hat, Universal unleashed him as a live-action movie with Mike Myers in the title role. The movie opened to $38.3M domestic, and finaled at $101M U.S./Canada and $134M WW but was considered a dud with a $109M production cost and 11% RT with critics and a B- CinemaScore (which is quite low for a family movie).
The film will receive a staggered offshore release which is par for the course for an animated family title during the holidays. Sixty territories are going this weekend in 17,000 screens specifically Mexico, Spain, Italy, Korea and China. The UK is going on Dec. 4, France on Dec. 9, Germany on Dec. 10, Japan on Christmas Day and Australia/NZ on Dec. 31.
Angel Studios’ has the colonial set movie Drummer Boy at 2,840 theaters which is eyeing around mid single digits. We hear they have around $3M in presales. The Ben Smallbone and Joel David Smallbone directed movie follows a young drummer boy, an enslaved woman, and a divided family who are in search for freedom. Through battle and loss, music carries hope in a deeply human story of faith and forgiveness. Previews start Thursday after 11 30am.
Searchlight is bowing the Martin McDonagh directed and written R-rated political comedy, Wild Horse Nine, at 1,470 theaters per Rentrak with a forecast of $4M-$6M. The John Malkovich and Sam Rockwell starring feature follows two CIA agents on trust-testing mission in Easter Island on the precise of revolution in 1973 Chile. Malkovich won the Volpi Cup for Best Actor out of the pic’s Venice world premiere. McDonagh is up for screenplay and Malkovich outstanding lead performance at the Gotham Awards. Previews start Thursday after 2PM. Searchlight held early access screenings on Oct. 30 in the top 50 markets at 400 theaters. The studio teamed with the Alex Theatre in Glendale, CA for exclusive, limited 35mm screenings. Rotten Tomatoes critical score is excellent at 92% certified fresh.
Sony is getting into the Indian-Hindi feature business with the Diwali-timed theatrical release of Ramayana: Rise of a Legend which opens tomorrow. Based on the epic poem Ramayana by Valmiki, pic follows the life and trials of Prince Rama. The first part of the Nitesh Tiwari directed and co-written movie is looking at $6M over 4-days stateside in line with comparable releases such as Kalki 2898 AD ($5.6M), Devara Part 1 ($5.6M), and Pushpa: The Rule – Part 2 ($5M). Previews today began at 3PM in 1,300 locations, making it the widest North American theatrical release for an Indian movie. The pic will be playing in Imax and 3D. Sony has select territories (they aren’t handling India); the movie is expected to do another $6M abroad where the Culver City studio is releasing it. Ten reviews are at 40% Rotten on Rotten Tomatoes. This is a distribution deal for Sony.
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